Never Draft Too Soon

Every single year I like to wait until the week before the season or as close to it as possible to draft. I understand most people are busy and are even involved in multiple leagues, but this is something I always try to do. There's still position battles, and injuries that change drafts completely. So this year, when a good friend of mine asked me for some fantasy advice for his draft about a month ago, it was simple- don't draft this early.

My friend agreed, but said that this is when the rest of the league had planned to do draft and he couldn't change anyone else's minds. To his misfortune he ended up drafting possibly this years biggest dud-Matt Cassel.

Of course the day Cassel gets hurt, I get the call and I go hysterical. To think the one draftee trying to avoid drafting early is the one who took the first big hit of the fantasy seasonso far, was a concept I just couldnt come to grips with. Quickly he scrambled to the waiver wire, and grabbed Shaun Hill for the time being. Hopefully Cassel can get healthy and lead his team, but this is just another lesson to be learned from drafting too soon.

In the spirit of all this, I would like to go over some of the players who have risen and fallen on the draft boards in recent weeks, and remind everyone not to have a draft too soon as we have seen so many things change this pre-season. (See Cassel, Matt and Favre, Brett ->)

Players on the rise:

Ray Rice, Bal RB

Rice has seen his stock rise in recent weeks with the report that he has surpassed both Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain on the depth chart. McGahee just doesn't have the burst he use to and McClain has goal line and fullback written all over him. With Rice being the most explosive back in a run first system, Rice is a solid sleeper type back.

Beanie Wells, Ari RB

Arizona doesn't run the ball well. This should come to no surprise however, because they ran the ball a league low 34 percent of the time last year. They need someone to take the reigns, and they didn't draft this Big Ten bruiser in the first round for no reason. He may end up splitting time with Hightower, but it's only a matter or time before he plays himself into the starting job.

Leon Washington, NYJ RB

Thomas Jones has almost 2,000 carries on his legs in the last nine years, and seen his ypc drop off the last three years with the exception of last. The Jets like Leon Washington and say they plan to use him a lot more this year, plus he's their best big play threat. All of this has been happening this past week, and it's been showing with him sneaking into draft days. I see a combo of all three backs, that being Jones, Washington, and Greene

Players on the decline:

Jonathan Stewart, Car RB

Stewart was a surprise to many last year, scoring double digit touchdowns. He wasn't a surprise to many fantasy GM's this off-season until he hurt his Achilles this summer. Now he's falling in a lot of drafts despite saying he'll be ready for the season. With the injuries, there's no wonder he's falling so far.

Antonio Bryant, TB WR

Bryant was another surprise last year to many posting the best season statistically of his career. This year however, he won't have Jeff Garcia throwing to him, and no one is quite sure who will be tossin' the ball, but early reports have Byron Leftwich starting the first game. Also they just fired their offensive coordinator. Perhaps these are reason fantasy GM's are weary.

LenDale White, Ten RB

White has been fallen into the mid to mid-late rounds in every draft I have participated in this season. White has been dealing with weight, and effort issues since he entered the league, and never seems to say the right things. He also splits carries with Chris Johnson, another fantasy force. But, after scoring 15 touchdowns a year ago, we know what he is capable of. This is a guy who can be had later in draft, and still has a lot of value. However drafter beware.